Smarkets Challenge: Predicting the Premiership Results
August 20, 2010
It’s already the second week of the 2010/2011 Premiership and after an array of wild predictions at Smarkets Towers last weekend, the team have tried their hand at tipping this week for undisputed bragging rights.
Each of the team were given 10 units, and assigned them to any Premiership game they wanted. The return is then calculated based on the current odds (we’re showing it in decimal here)
| Match | Jason | Hunter | Alex | Brad | Russ | Jamie | Chris | Daniel | Scott |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Blackpool | 3H | 2H | 1H | 1A | 1D | ||||
| Brum v Blackburn | 2H | 1H | 1D | ||||||
| Everton v Wolves | 2H | 1H | 4H | 1D | |||||
| Stoke v Spurs | 1H | 2A | 1A | 3A | 1D | 5A | |||
| West Brom v Sunderland | 2H | 1H | 1H | 1D | |||||
| West Ham v Bolton | 10A | 1H | 1A | 1D | |||||
| Wigan v Chelsea | 1A | 3A | 1A | 1H | 1D | ||||
| Newcastle v Villa | 1A | 1A | 4A | 1D | 5A | ||||
| Fulham v Man Utd | 10A | 1A | 4A | 1D | |||||
| Man City v Liverpool | 1H | 2A | 1D | ||||||
| Potential Return | 6.61 | 11.39 | 25.6 | 6.04 | 9.86 | 44.1 | 17.16 | 33.78 | 13.7 |
Jason and Scott have gone for a straightforward approach, with Jason risking his entire bankroll on the Man Utd game, which is fairly safe but will only earn him 6.61 units profit. Scott decided to hedge his risk between Spurs and Aston Villa, for a greater return than Jason of 13.7 units.
Alex went for the emotional hedge against the Hammers, with bragging rights a consolation prize if West Ham lose.
Myself, Brad and Hunter have gone for a few teams to try and spread the risk. Brad has gone for the safer picks hence the lowest potential return of any of the team. Hunter has some controversial picks, with Newcastle and Stoke going against the majority of the team.
I went for where I feel there is value, even at a greater risk. Both Spurs and Aston Villa had superb opening games, and even though Tottenham had a bit of hiccup midweek in the Champions League I feel both teams have a good chance. West Ham were thrashed last week, so I’m hoping Bolton can nick a win while moral is down. Finally I went for Liverpool, as I wasn’t that impressed with City last week and I feel on our day Liverpool can have ‘em!
Russ decided to spread his units across all the favourites, which will earn him a idy 9.86 units if they all come in.
Jamie went for an interesting strategy of 2 of his units on long-shots to look for that big win, but covered him self with 8 of his units on sure bets.
We’ll see who arrives at work victorious on Monday…
Battle of the Premiership Pundits Results
May 10, 2010
So, that’s it, Chelsea lift the league title with an emphatic 8-0 win at Wigan. Here’s the end of season results for the pundits:
| Match | Actual Result | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Fulham | 4-0 | Correct | Correct | - |
| Villa v Blackburn | 0-1 | Incorrect | Incorrect | - |
| Bolton v Birmingham City | 2-1 | Correct | Correct | - |
| Burnley v Spurs | 4-2 | Incorrect | Incorrect | - |
| Chelsea v Wigan | 8-0 | Correct | Correct | - |
| Everton v Portsmouth | 1-0 | Correct | Correct | - |
| Hull v Liverpool | 0-0 | Incorrect | Incorrect | - |
| Man Utd v Stoke | 4-0 | Correct | Correct | - |
| West Ham v Man City | 1-1 | Correct | Incorrect | - |
| Wolves v Sunderland | 2-1 | Incorrect | Incorrect | - |
| This Week | 6 of 10 (60%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | ||
| Final | 39 of 69 (56%) | 30 of 59 (51%) | 33 of 69 (48%) |
What does this tell us? Not a great deal! The pundits are pretty much 50% accurate in predicting the result of the game but much less effective at predicting the correct score. BBC’s Mark Lawrenson takes the title, but it’s a hollow victory, the pundits are pretty much as accurate as your local pub know-it-all!
Next season I’ll throw the open the challenge to new pundits, track the full season and record the correct score predictions when given.
Battle of the Premiership Pundits Pt.9
May 7, 2010
The Premiership is pretty much all done, and Huw appears to be sitting this week out, but here’s how the remaining pundits see the final weekends action going down.
| Match | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Fulham | 2-0 | 2-0 | - | Bet Now |
| Villa v Blackburn | 2-0 | 2-1 | - | Bet Now |
| Bolton v Birmingham City | 2-1 | 1-0 | - | Bet Now |
| Burnley v Spurs | 1-2 | 1-2 | - | Bet Now |
| Chelsea v Wigan | 4-0 | 4-1 | - | Bet Now |
| Everton v Portsmouth | 2-0 | 3-0 | - | Bet Now |
| Hull v Liverpool | 1-2 | 1-1 | - | Bet Now |
| Man Utd v Stoke | 2-0 | 3-0 | - | Bet Now |
| West Ham v Man City | 1-1 | 1-2 | - | Bet Now |
| Wolves v Sunderland | 1-1 | 2-2 | - | Bet Now |
Battle of Premiership Pundits Pt.8 Results
May 4, 2010
No one called that Stoke v Everton draw, but on the whole it wasn’t a bad week for the pundits. Only a few matches left in the season so it’s looking like Lauro will take the crown.
| Match | Actual Result | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham v Burnley | 2-1 | Correct | Correct | Correct |
| Man City v Villa | 3-1 | Correct | Correct | Correct |
| Portsmouth v Wolves | 3-1 | Incorrect | Correct | Incorrect |
| Stoke v Everton | 0-0 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Spurs v Bolton | 1-0 | Correct | Correct | Incorrect |
| Liverpool v Chelsea | 0-2 | Correct | - | Correct |
| Fulham v West Ham | 3-2 | Incorrect | - | Incorrect |
| Sunderland v Man Utd | 0-1 | Correct | - | Correct |
| This Week | 5 of 8 (62%) | 4 of 5 (80%) | 4 of 8 (50%) | |
| Rolling | 33 of 59 (56%) | 25 of 49 (51%) | 33 of 69 (48%) |
Battle of the Premiership Pundits pt.8
April 30, 2010
The season is drawing to a close and there’s a few dead duck fixtures this weekend, but here’s how the pundits call it:
| Match | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham v Burnley | 2-1 | 3-1 | Birmingham | Bet Now |
| Man City v Villa | 2-1 | 3-2 | Man City | Bet Now |
| Portsmouth v Wolves | 1-2 | 2-0 | Wolves | Bet Now |
| Stoke v Everton | 1-1 | 0-1 | Stoke | Bet Now |
| Spurs v Bolton | 2-0 | 2-1 | Bolton | Bet Now |
| Liverpool v Chelsea | 1-2 | - | Chelsea | Bet Now |
| Fulham v West Ham | 1-2 | - | West Ham | Bet Now |
| Sunderland v Man Utd | 0-2 | - | Man Utd | Bet Now |
Battle of the Pundits Pt.7 Results
April 26, 2010
Good week for Lauro, but the other pundits are still floundering under 50% accuracy. There’s not much of the season left to pick up their average either…
| Match | Actual Result | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man united v Spurs | 3-1 | Correct | Correct | Incorrect |
| Bolton v Portsmouth | 2-2 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Hull v Sunderland | 0-1 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| West Ham v Wigan | 3-2 | Correct | Correct | Incorrect |
| Wolves v Blackburn | 1-1 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Correct |
| Arsenal v Man City | 0-0 | Correct | Correct | Correct |
| Villa v Birmingham | 1-0 | Correct | - | Correct |
| Burnley v Liverpool | 0-4 | Correct | - | Correct |
| Everton v Fulham | 2-1 | Correct | - | Correct |
| Chelsea v Stoke | 7-0 | Correct | - | Incorrect |
| This Week | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 6 (50%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | |
| Rolling | 28 of 51 (54%) | 21 of 44 (47%) | 29 of 61 (47%) |
Battle of the Premiership Pundits pt.7
April 23, 2010
As the premiership draws to a close we wonder if our pundits can recover from their recent abysmal performances
| Match | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man united v Spurs | 2-0 | 2-1 | Draw | Bet Now |
| Bolton v Portsmouth | 2-1 | 2-0 | Bolton | Bet Now |
| Hull v Sunderland | 1-1 | 1-1 | Win | Bet Now |
| West Ham v Wigan | 2-0 | 2-1 | Wigan | Bet Now |
| Wolves v Blackburn | 2-1 | 1-0 | Draw | Bet Now |
| Arsenal v Man City | 1-1 | 2-2 | Draw | Bet Now |
| Villa v Birmingham | 2-0 | - | Villa | Bet Now |
| Burnley v Liverpool | 1-2 | - | Liverpool | Bet Now |
| Everton v Fulham | 2-0 | - | Everton | Bet Now |
| Chelsea v Stoke | 2-0 | - | Draw | Bet Now |
Battle of the Premiership Pundits Results Pt.6
April 19, 2010
Another poor week for the experts. Lots of upsets and only three results from twenty six correctly predicted.
| Match | Actual Result | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City vs Manchester Utd | 0-1 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Birmingham vs Hull | 0-0 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Blackburn vs Everton | 2-3 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Fulham vs Wolves | 0-0 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Correct |
| Stoke vs Bolton | 1-2 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Sunderland vs Burnley | 2-1 | Correct | Correct | Incorrect |
| Tottenham vs Chelsea | 2-1 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Wigan vs Arsenal | 3-2 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| Portsmouth vs Aston Villa | 1-2 | Correct | - | Correct |
| This Week | 2 of 9 (22%) | 1 of 8 (12%) | 2 of 9 (22%) | |
| Rolling | 21 of 41 (51%) | 18 of 38 (47%) | 24 of 51 (47%) |
Battle of the Premiership Pundits pt.6
April 16, 2010
It’s Friday, so it must be time for the pundit predictions. After such a dismal performance last weekend the lads will have to pull their socks up, dig deep, and remember it’s game of two halves, you don’t want to end up sick as a parrot.
| Match | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City vs Manchester Utd | Draw | Draw | Man City | Bet Now |
| Birmingham vs Hull | Birmingham | Birmingham | Birmingham | Bet Now |
| Blackburn vs Everton | Draw | Draw | Draw | Bet Now |
| Fulham vs Wolves | Fulham | Fulham | Draw | Bet Now |
| Stoke vs Bolton | Stoke | Stoke | Stoke | Bet Now |
| Sunderland vs Burnley | Sunderland | Sunderland | Draw | Bet Now |
| Tottenham vs Chelsea | Chelsea | Chelsea | Draw | Bet Now |
| Wigan vs Arsenal | Arsenal | - | Arsenal | Bet Now |
| Portsmouth vs Aston Villa | Aston Villa | - | Aston Villa | Bet Now |
Battle of the Premiership Pundits Results pt.5
April 12, 2010
No one would have expected that result at Hull, but it was a horrible week for all the pundits, Huw bombed with a big fat zero from six predictions. With every ‘expert’ struggling at 50-60% accuracy, their predictions are looking less and less reliable…
| Match | Actual Result | Lawro | Andy Gray | Huw Davis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull vs Burnley | 1-4 | Incorrect | Incorrect | Incorrect |
| West Ham vs Sunderland | 1-0 | Correct | Correct | Incorrect |
| Blackburn vs Manchester United | 0-0 | Incorrect | - | Incorrect |
| Liverpool vs Fulham | 0-0 | Incorrect | - | Incorrect |
| Manchester City vs Birmingham | 5-1 | Correct | - | Incorrect |
| Wolves vs Stoke | 0-0 | Incorrect | - | Incorrect |
| This Week | 2 of 6 (33%) | 1 of 2 (50%) | 0 of 6 (0%) | |
| Rolling | 19 of 32 (59%) | 17 of 30 (56%) | 22 of 42 (52%) |
