Results are in from the Feltham & Heston by-election and on a reduced turnout, Labour have held onto the seat by a mile. This will relieve some of the mounting pressure on Ed Miliband, who has been criticised by Labour insiders for failing to make an impact with the wider public.
What are the odds on a 2012 exit? Our market puts a 29% chance of the Labour leader being ousted next year. This may be a little pessimistic – if next year passes without improvement in the economy Miliband’s steady approach may yet bare dividends.
And with Cameron briefing his MPs to expect further pain next year, Miliband still has plenty of opportunities to find a message that resonates with the public.
But with the Labour party trailing the Tories by 2pts in the national polls you can be sure that the knives will be out for the Labour leader if his performance does not improve. This is certainly one to watch in 2012.
Betting on the Facebook IPO
December 15, 2011
While you can’t bet on Facebook yet, Smarkets is letting you bet about Facebook.
The tech world is caught up with the impending announcement of Facebook going public. As a tech start-up, we’re also curious as to how it will unfold – so today we’re introducing two new markets where you can bet on the Facebook IPO:
1. When will Facebook hold its Initial Public Offering?
Bet on the month during which Facebook will go public. Will it be a Christmas surprise or will they wait until the summer? Think you know? Well, now you can make some money from it.
2. How much is Facebook worth?
How much do you think Facebook is really worth? Bet on the market capitalisation at the end of the first day following their IPO. We’re personally hoping that they’re worth enough to update Mark Zuckerberg’s wardrobe.
Details on how each contract will be settled and the options for betting can be found on their individual pages.
Happy betting!
The Smarkets Team
X Factor Round of 16 market now live
October 5, 2011
Ever wish you were a teenage girl from Walton-on-Thames? You know, the type with blonde hair, lashings of black eyeliner and a set of pipes that seem better suited for the lead in a gospel choir? Yeah, me too. Unfortunately, I’m a 27 year-old brunette from Canada. I can’t put on eye make-up very well and the bulk of my singing is usually done in my head, where no one can hear it.
Thank God then, for X Factor. Seeing that I’ve no chance of making it into the Round of 16, I’ll be curled up on my sofa, accompanying the finalists on their quest for fame whilst simultaneously trying to make a few quid. Our X Factor market is now live: http://smarkets.com/tv-entertainment/
I know what you’re thinking. What kind of vapid person wastes a Saturday night watching B-list celebs proffer vocal advice to young men and women? X Factor is more of an Achilles’ heel to me than a good bar of chocolate. It’s impossible not to be sucked into the melodrama. I regularly tear up watching waitresses and Tesco cashiers sing their hearts out. And I am a sucker for the contestant makeovers and petty rows between the judges.
So who am I putting my money on? No one in Louis’ group, for starters. In spite of my soft spot for Nu Vibe, current odds of 18 and the fact that no group has ever won X Factor means I won’t be risking anything for them. I don’t know what all the fuss is re: Janet Devlin. However, she is the favourite to win. Smarkets currently has her at 4.9, a good price at this early stage – and one you might expect to drop for a nice opportunity to green up should she make it to the later rounds.
Is it campy? Yes. Staged? Obviously. A waste of time? That’s debatable. But despite its frivolity, X Factor certainly makes for riveting television. Let the drama begin.
White Christmas? Don’t count on it
December 20, 2010
Every year it’s the same. Snow hits Britain, and suddenly the papers are full of stories about bookies slashing their odds on a White Christmas. It’s sometimes easy to forget that the odds remain heavily stacked in the bookies’ favour.
The definition of a White Christmas specifies that snow must fall at a certain location on the day in order for it to be valid. This means that even with this week’s cold weather a White Christmas remains unlikely. In 7 of the last 10 years the bookies have dramatically announced the slashing of their odds in the run up to Christmas. However, London has not seen a white Christmas since 1999, and technically across the UK there have only been 4 White Christmases in the last 10 years.
You wouldn’t get that impression from looking at the prices of the major bookmakers, who have this year slashed their odds to some of the shortest (and therefore of the worst value) ever:
| Bookie | Odds |
| Ladbrokes | 2.25 |
| William Hill | 2.25 |
| Coral | 2.1 |
| Compared to Smarkets | 3.35 |
At Smarkets, you can get odds which closer reflect the true probability of a White Christmas. The competitive nature of a betting exchange forces our prices to be more efficient, and therefore give better value to smart punters. Next time you read a headline about a bookie predicting a White Christmas, its perhaps best to take their odds with a pinch of salt and find out the real probability on Smarkets.
Is David about to jump?
September 28, 2010
This morning’s papers were full of speculation that following Ed Miliband’s shock victory in the Labour Leadership race on Saturday, his brother might quit front-line politics altogether. With the deadline for Shadow Cabinet nominations at 5pm tomorrow, time is quickly running out for David Miliband to declare his intention to stand.
However, is David, who has called for “no more cliques, no more factions, no more soap opera”, really preparing to abandon his party?
Smarkets punters currently appear to think so, with the odds of David Miliband not standing in the Shadow Cabinet Elections at 66%. I suspect it’s going to be an interesting market to watch over the next 24 hours.
The Wisdom of (Certain) Crowds
September 25, 2010
The Labour leadership result might have come as a surprise to many pundits, but it was accurately predicted by Smarkets members.
When our market on the Labour leadership campaign closed at 3pm this afternoon, the money of our members was on David Miliband to come first among MPs/MEPs and ordinary party members, but on Ed Miliband to sweep the trade union section and win overall.
The punters were vindicated when the results were finally announced. And in hindsight, it should have been obvious.
The Ed Miliband campaign had many advantages, not least its perception as not being the New Labour option and the length of the campaign (which allowed David Miliband to drift out).
But more important must be Ed Miliband’s popularity with union members. A candidate that can dominate one third of the Labour electoral college can afford to be less popular amongst the other voters. Initially, many people believed that David Miliband’s support amongst MPs and MEPs would be so strong that no other candidate would be able to pose a significant threat. The opposite has been shown to be the case.
It serves as a reminder that the collective wisdom of the market can trump the received wisdom of the pundits.
Timely Markets – The Andy Coulson Story
September 7, 2010
Being an small team can really pay off sometimes. I blogged about the Alastair Campbell thing a while back, and in a similar vein, the current media interest in the Andy Coulson/Phone hacking story made an interesting diversion this week from working on the Euro Qualifiers and upcoming horse racing markets.
When the media is heavily covering a story (and as long as it doesn’t violate our editorial guidelines), creating a market around an issue can be a really interesting way to track the mood of the betting public.
The story was whether Andy Coulson would resign from his position in the Conservative Party after the New York Times published an article into whether he was complicit in phone hacking. We opened the market and immediately the momentum was behind ‘yes’. Bloggers blogged and Twitterers tweeted and within an hour it has swung strongly towards ‘no’. Now the market is more settled and it’s gently bobbing around 15% no / 88% yes.
This example is exactly what we love to do at Smarkets; put up markets that captures the public attention and watch as rival opinions and media coverage moves the market in different directions. Whether Coulson will leave or not is up to him, but it’ll be interesting to see whether the ‘wisdom of crowds’ was proved correct.
Smarkets Challenge: Predicting the Premiership Results
August 20, 2010
It’s already the second week of the 2010/2011 Premiership and after an array of wild predictions at Smarkets Towers last weekend, the team have tried their hand at tipping this week for undisputed bragging rights.
Each of the team were given 10 units, and assigned them to any Premiership game they wanted. The return is then calculated based on the current odds (we’re showing it in decimal here)
| Match | Jason | Hunter | Alex | Brad | Russ | Jamie | Chris | Daniel | Scott |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Blackpool | 3H | 2H | 1H | 1A | 1D | ||||
| Brum v Blackburn | 2H | 1H | 1D | ||||||
| Everton v Wolves | 2H | 1H | 4H | 1D | |||||
| Stoke v Spurs | 1H | 2A | 1A | 3A | 1D | 5A | |||
| West Brom v Sunderland | 2H | 1H | 1H | 1D | |||||
| West Ham v Bolton | 10A | 1H | 1A | 1D | |||||
| Wigan v Chelsea | 1A | 3A | 1A | 1H | 1D | ||||
| Newcastle v Villa | 1A | 1A | 4A | 1D | 5A | ||||
| Fulham v Man Utd | 10A | 1A | 4A | 1D | |||||
| Man City v Liverpool | 1H | 2A | 1D | ||||||
| Potential Return | 6.61 | 11.39 | 25.6 | 6.04 | 9.86 | 44.1 | 17.16 | 33.78 | 13.7 |
Jason and Scott have gone for a straightforward approach, with Jason risking his entire bankroll on the Man Utd game, which is fairly safe but will only earn him 6.61 units profit. Scott decided to hedge his risk between Spurs and Aston Villa, for a greater return than Jason of 13.7 units.
Alex went for the emotional hedge against the Hammers, with bragging rights a consolation prize if West Ham lose.
Myself, Brad and Hunter have gone for a few teams to try and spread the risk. Brad has gone for the safer picks hence the lowest potential return of any of the team. Hunter has some controversial picks, with Newcastle and Stoke going against the majority of the team.
I went for where I feel there is value, even at a greater risk. Both Spurs and Aston Villa had superb opening games, and even though Tottenham had a bit of hiccup midweek in the Champions League I feel both teams have a good chance. West Ham were thrashed last week, so I’m hoping Bolton can nick a win while moral is down. Finally I went for Liverpool, as I wasn’t that impressed with City last week and I feel on our day Liverpool can have ‘em!
Russ decided to spread his units across all the favourites, which will earn him a idy 9.86 units if they all come in.
Jamie went for an interesting strategy of 2 of his units on long-shots to look for that big win, but covered him self with 8 of his units on sure bets.
We’ll see who arrives at work victorious on Monday…
Bet on the Mercury Music Prize
July 20, 2010
The nominations for the 2010 Mercury Music Prize have been announced, listen to them on Spotify (with the links below) and then make your bet with us!
Dizzee Rascal – Tongue N’ Cheek
The xx – xx
Paul Weller – Wake Up the Nation
Corinne Bailey Rae – The Sea
Mumford and Sons – Sigh No More
Laura Marling – I Speak Because I Can
Foals – Total Life Forever
Wild Beasts – Two Dancers
Biffy Clyro – Only Revolutions
Villagers – Becoming a Jackal
Kit Downes Trio – Golden
I Am Kloot – Sky at Night
Bet for who you think will win, or bet against the bands you hate!
Fox on InTrade and the Wisdom of Crowds
May 20, 2010
A nice piece here from Fox TV (never thought I’d say that) on the wisdom of crowds and how prediction markets function.
The John Stossel show covered a bunch of other aspects of the American gambling industry in this six part series, all of which can be found on on www.midasoracle.org.
