Results are in from the Feltham & Heston by-election and on a reduced turnout, Labour have held onto the seat by a mile. This will relieve some of the mounting pressure on Ed Miliband, who has been criticised by Labour insiders for failing to make an impact with the wider public.
What are the odds on a 2012 exit? Our market puts a 29% chance of the Labour leader being ousted next year. This may be a little pessimistic – if next year passes without improvement in the economy Miliband’s steady approach may yet bare dividends.
And with Cameron briefing his MPs to expect further pain next year, Miliband still has plenty of opportunities to find a message that resonates with the public.
But with the Labour party trailing the Tories by 2pts in the national polls you can be sure that the knives will be out for the Labour leader if his performance does not improve. This is certainly one to watch in 2012.
Jason Trost on BBC Radio 5Live
March 13, 2011
Congratulations to Smarkets CEO Jason Trost, who was on the panel of tonight’s episode of “On the Money” discussing fraud, risk and general business news with Declan Curry.
If you missed it, or just find Jason’s voice that alluring, you can check out the programme over on BBC iPlayer.
Specials Round-up
November 23, 2010
At Smarkets we enjoy offering an interesting and different range of political specials markets. They have a good record of predicting the outcome of events or acting as a measure of what political insiders are thinking so from time to time it is worth highlighting them.
Most anticipated a quick return to Government for David Laws, and initially many were placing their money on a return in 2010. However, following Laws now playing down the prospects of a quick return, punters think that a return in early 2011 is most likely.
Similarly, when David Miliband was calling for an end to factionalism, a swift return to front-line politics seemed likely. But no longer. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the apparently bad blood between David and his brother, Smarkets punters think no return before 2013 or not at all is now more likely.
We’ve been seeing a fairly sustained rally in the odds of a Yes vote in the AV referendum. Punters on Smarkets are putting a yes vote at 48%, No at 66.66%. This is despite the seemingly dire news for the pro-reform camp, with successive polling suggesting that support for a new voting system has been in decline since May.
Though the Woolas ruling is dragging on, most punters seem fairly confident that there will be an election in Oldham East and Saddleworth, with odds at 95%. However, despite the negative publicity that might be attached to the case, Labour is still favourite to keep the seat at 70%.
Tom Watson reports that Cameron’s embattled Media advisor, Andy Coulson, might be off in a matter of weeks. Smarkets punters however think he looks safe for now, with his odds of staying this year at 83%.
Finally, punters had their money on the mark with the Royal Wedding, after people realised early on that an April Wedding at Westminster Abbey was the most likely option. Congratulations to those who called it right.
US Senate race
November 4, 2010
We’ve been receiving a number of enquiries about when we plan to close our US Senate Race market. With most of the results called already, you’d be forgiven for thinking that a Democratic majority was in the bag. But with the Democrats currently on 50 seats, they are short of the magic 51 needed for a majority in the senate.
To remain fair, we’ve got to be pretty strict in our interpretation what counts as a Democrat and we know that this figure of 50 is contentious. Most media outlets are reporting the Democrats on 52 seats. Why the discrepancy? Because Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, both independents, are often counted as Democrats due to their choice to caucus with them. But as they are not Democratic senators, we cannot include them in any tally of Democratic seats.
However, those who bet on the Democrats to keep the Senate need not despair. All eyes are now focused on Washington, where the Democrats are ahead to take the seat. If the Democrats are successful, that would give them the extra seat they need to have a majority. So we hope we’ll be able to settle this market soon.
Is David about to jump?
September 28, 2010
This morning’s papers were full of speculation that following Ed Miliband’s shock victory in the Labour Leadership race on Saturday, his brother might quit front-line politics altogether. With the deadline for Shadow Cabinet nominations at 5pm tomorrow, time is quickly running out for David Miliband to declare his intention to stand.
However, is David, who has called for “no more cliques, no more factions, no more soap opera”, really preparing to abandon his party?
Smarkets punters currently appear to think so, with the odds of David Miliband not standing in the Shadow Cabinet Elections at 66%. I suspect it’s going to be an interesting market to watch over the next 24 hours.
The Wisdom of (Certain) Crowds
September 25, 2010
The Labour leadership result might have come as a surprise to many pundits, but it was accurately predicted by Smarkets members.
When our market on the Labour leadership campaign closed at 3pm this afternoon, the money of our members was on David Miliband to come first among MPs/MEPs and ordinary party members, but on Ed Miliband to sweep the trade union section and win overall.
The punters were vindicated when the results were finally announced. And in hindsight, it should have been obvious.
The Ed Miliband campaign had many advantages, not least its perception as not being the New Labour option and the length of the campaign (which allowed David Miliband to drift out).
But more important must be Ed Miliband’s popularity with union members. A candidate that can dominate one third of the Labour electoral college can afford to be less popular amongst the other voters. Initially, many people believed that David Miliband’s support amongst MPs and MEPs would be so strong that no other candidate would be able to pose a significant threat. The opposite has been shown to be the case.
It serves as a reminder that the collective wisdom of the market can trump the received wisdom of the pundits.
Thanks Ladbrokes!
September 23, 2010
At Smarkets we believe that imitation is the highest form of flattery. So when Ladbrokes created not one, but two ever-so-slightly-similar markets to our own yesterday, we chose not to interpret this as a well-established bookmaker running out of ideas, but as a recognition that Smarkets is constantly ahead of the curve in offering members innovative and interesting political markets on which to trade.
But seriously Ladbrokes, next time you guys run out of ideas you are welcome to give us a call. We are brimming with them…
Tweet away, we’re listening!
May 13, 2010
We don’t often blow our own trumpet, but when Lindsey, an eagle eyed Smarkets member, spotted this tweet from Alastair Campbell:
It’s only took us 37 minutes to get the market live (we were a little slow because we were eating lunch!).
