Victory for Labour in Feltham & Heston, but can Miliband hold things together?
December 16, 2011
Results are in from the Feltham & Heston by-election and on a reduced turnout, Labour have held onto the seat by a mile. This will relieve some of the mounting pressure on Ed Miliband, who has been criticised by Labour insiders for failing to make an impact with the wider public.
What are the odds on a 2012 exit? Our market puts a 29% chance of the Labour leader being ousted next year. This may be a little pessimistic – if next year passes without improvement in the economy Miliband’s steady approach may yet bare dividends.
And with Cameron briefing his MPs to expect further pain next year, Miliband still has plenty of opportunities to find a message that resonates with the public.
But with the Labour party trailing the Tories by 2pts in the national polls you can be sure that the knives will be out for the Labour leader if his performance does not improve. This is certainly one to watch in 2012.