Runners and Riders in BBC Sports Personality
November 30, 2010
The BBC have now released their top-10 shortlist for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year. The competition has been particularly tough this year after a stellar year for British sportsmen and women, who have managed to reach some of the highest levels in competitive sport.
Favourite to win is jump jockey AP McCoy. With a string of titles to his name, this year he managed to ride to victory in April’s Grand National. McCoy’s victory was impressive, riding Don’t Push It to victory five lengths ahead of his nearest competitor. McCoy’s odds of winning the competition are currently at 52.5% (1.9).
Golfer Graeme McDowell is also considered a serious contender. During the Ryder cup in October, McDowell’s win against Hunter Mahan was crucial in allowing team Europe gain the final point and win the cup. Available at odds of (15.1%) 6.62, he may be well worth a punt.
Fellow Ryder-cup teammate and World Golf number 1, Lee Westwood could also be in with a chance. Though he hasn’t yet won a championship, his constant high standard of play has been impressive, and his odds to win the contest are currently at 9% (11.62)
Its also worth keeping an eye too on Jessica Ennis, David Haye and Tom Daley, all of whom have been tipped for the prize. Check out our full odds in our dedicated market.
Specials Round-up
November 23, 2010
At Smarkets we enjoy offering an interesting and different range of political specials markets. They have a good record of predicting the outcome of events or acting as a measure of what political insiders are thinking so from time to time it is worth highlighting them.
Most anticipated a quick return to Government for David Laws, and initially many were placing their money on a return in 2010. However, following Laws now playing down the prospects of a quick return, punters think that a return in early 2011 is most likely.
Similarly, when David Miliband was calling for an end to factionalism, a swift return to front-line politics seemed likely. But no longer. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the apparently bad blood between David and his brother, Smarkets punters think no return before 2013 or not at all is now more likely.
We’ve been seeing a fairly sustained rally in the odds of a Yes vote in the AV referendum. Punters on Smarkets are putting a yes vote at 48%, No at 66.66%. This is despite the seemingly dire news for the pro-reform camp, with successive polling suggesting that support for a new voting system has been in decline since May.
Though the Woolas ruling is dragging on, most punters seem fairly confident that there will be an election in Oldham East and Saddleworth, with odds at 95%. However, despite the negative publicity that might be attached to the case, Labour is still favourite to keep the seat at 70%.
Tom Watson reports that Cameron’s embattled Media advisor, Andy Coulson, might be off in a matter of weeks. Smarkets punters however think he looks safe for now, with his odds of staying this year at 83%.
Finally, punters had their money on the mark with the Royal Wedding, after people realised early on that an April Wedding at Westminster Abbey was the most likely option. Congratulations to those who called it right.
Laying a bet: How Smarkets differs from other exchanges
November 19, 2010
If you’re a frequent user of other online betting exchanges, you may have noticed that laying a bet on Smarkets works a little differently. Here’s a quick explanation of how our system works.
Laying on Betfair
As you can see in this example on Betfair, you input the amount you want to win into the ‘Backer’s Stake’ and your liability is derived from this. Liability is calculated from the amount you would have to pay out if the backer won at the odds you lay at.
In the example above:
- £10 at 1.95 wins £9.50 – when you place a £10 bet against Liverpool, you are betting against someone who has bet £10 on Liverpool, therefore you are liable for the £9.50 the backer could potentially win from his £10 bet.
- £10 at 4.8 wins £38 – in the same way as by laying £10 against odds of 4.8, you are liable for the £38 potential winnings of the backer.
Laying on Smarkets
On Smarkets instead of inputting a ‘Backers Stake’ you input liability – the opposite to Betfair. You input the amount you wish to risk, and we calculate how much the backer could win from this liability.
As you can see from the two bet slips above:
- To win £10 betting against Liverpool, you need to input £9.50 liability, as this is what the backer would win from £10 at odds of 1.95.
- To win £10 betting against Napoli you need to input £38 liability as this is what the backer would win from £10 at odds of 4.8.
To convert from Betfair Backer’s Stake to Smarkets Liability: Backers stake / (Odds – 1) = Liability
| Odds | Backer’s Stake – Betfair | Liability – Smarkets |
|
1.5
|
10
|
5
|
|
2
|
10
|
10
|
|
2.5
|
10
|
15
|
|
3
|
10
|
20
|
|
5
|
10
|
40
|
|
10
|
10
|
90
|
Default market depth
November 18, 2010
Today we’re introducing a new feature to make it easier to see the depth in a market. So now under your account settings you’ll find an option to make Market Depth show by default:
Drop us a line and let us know what you think!
Welcome to the Jungle!
November 12, 2010
If watching celebrity B-listers humiliate themselves is your sort of thing, then you are probably excited about this weekend’s return of I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here on ITV1.
With the final list of celebrities taking part in Series 10 having now been released, we’ve opened our market and are allowing Smarkets members to start betting on the outcome.
Former X Factor finalist Stacey Solomon is the early favourite to win, though all might change over the next three weeks as the public have the opportunity to send the celebrities home.
US Senate race
November 4, 2010
We’ve been receiving a number of enquiries about when we plan to close our US Senate Race market. With most of the results called already, you’d be forgiven for thinking that a Democratic majority was in the bag. But with the Democrats currently on 50 seats, they are short of the magic 51 needed for a majority in the senate.
To remain fair, we’ve got to be pretty strict in our interpretation what counts as a Democrat and we know that this figure of 50 is contentious. Most media outlets are reporting the Democrats on 52 seats. Why the discrepancy? Because Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, both independents, are often counted as Democrats due to their choice to caucus with them. But as they are not Democratic senators, we cannot include them in any tally of Democratic seats.
However, those who bet on the Democrats to keep the Senate need not despair. All eyes are now focused on Washington, where the Democrats are ahead to take the seat. If the Democrats are successful, that would give them the extra seat they need to have a majority. So we hope we’ll be able to settle this market soon.
